So, a Referendum Against Tusk in June

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Continuing the previous observations (link to Part 1), we can outline a scenario of international events that will inevitably influence the situation in Poland during the first half of the year.

1. Economic Upheaval

As previously indicated, we will witness intense economic developments. Here are several key elements of the „great game” already underway:

• The energy breakthrough will not only stem from Donald Trump unleashing America’s vast oil and gas reserves onto international markets – primarily European ones – but also from its long-term impact. This will shape Europe’s dependence on U.S. energy supplies, determining its future energy security.
• The U.S. strategy has two fundamental objectives:
  • First, to strip Russia of its capacity to sustain the war in Ukraine and curb its global ambitions (which indirectly bolster China) by dramatically lowering oil and gas prices.
  • Second, to reassure American allies in the Gulf and de-escalate conflicts in the Holy Land, weakening Iran and its allies.
• Lower energy prices will drastically alter global energy markets, discrediting the illusion of „cheap” renewable energy. This shift will have profound benefits for industry, provided there is a willingness to embrace this opportunity.
• This will effectively spell the death of the „Green Deal”, forcing Europe to choose between ideological green fantasies or preserving its global economic relevance.
• The collapse of the climate change narrative, backed by astronomical spending, will also expose the futility of carbon credit schemes, „carbon footprint taxes,” and financial support for „poorer countries.” The EU has pledged $150 billion annually for such causes, while the U.S. promised $100 billion. However, with the U.S. expected to renege on this commitment, the EU – whose annual budget is around €140 billion – will struggle to bear this burden.
• Such turbulence will force radical economic decisions in Germany, France, and Italy, with Poland inevitably affected. These choices will determine whether Europe can retain its economic potential and the prosperity built over generations.
• Another looming „tsunami” involves the European food market, strained by unregulated access granted to Ukrainian producers and equally unconsidered concessions to South American suppliers.

2. Impact on Poland

These economic shocks will profoundly influence Poland’s socio-economic stability. Tusk’s team, relying solely on Berlin and Brussels to „fix” Poland’s problems, will find themselves unprepared for the tsunami ahead. Hoping for a miracle to save them by June, they are instead exacerbating the consequences of upcoming waves. This resembles California’s governor cutting firefighting budgets just weeks before a wildfire outbreak.

3. The Ukrainian War’s Decisive Phase

The ongoing war in Ukraine will reach a critical juncture. Domestic „experts” mock Trump’s promise to end the war „the day after” assuming office, but they underestimate his resolve. Putin’s miscalculation in relying on Europe’s and America’s financial exhaustion will soon become apparent. Once the U.S. and its allies implement their energy strategies, Putin may recall the lessons of Afghanistan’s conclusion.

By midyear, the war is likely to wind down, but Europe will remain a mere bystander in this process. The U.S. will transform a devastated Ukraine into its exclusive sphere of influence, sidelining anyone not demonstrating loyalty in the first half of the year. There will be no room for Tusk and his cohorts, but Poland, undergoing its own transformation, could find a place at the table.

4. A Political Turning Point in Poland

This transformation may not only involve the election of K. Nawrocki as president but also his initiative to build a coalition capable of ousting Tusk. A constructive vote of no confidence, initiated by the new president in early August, could pave the way for a technical government to replace Tusk’s compromised team.

Such a government, even for six months, could stabilize the country, address pressing issues, and strengthen ties with the U.S., particularly regarding Ukraine. Afterward, the decision could be made to either extend its mandate until the next election or hold new elections by not passing the budget.

This scenario would effectively frame the elections as a referendum on Tusk’s leadership, a contest focused solely on his survival. Even his supporters no longer harbor illusions about his capacity to lead.

5. Preparations in the U.S.

This plan is already in motion. People from Vice President J.D. Vance’s circle and the incoming U.S. Ambassador are working on it. The U.S. Embassy is being „cleansed” of individuals tied to Brzezinski’s humiliating collaboration with Tusk’s team.

By midyear, these preparations will bear fruit. Tusk should perhaps call his buddy Trudeau for advice on making a timely exit – maybe this one will quickly give him practical advice on how to escape in time.