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Let us now examine the external factors that will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the electoral competition in Poland. Given the breadth of the subject, I will address it in two parts. Before delving into the core analysis, it is worth noting the foundations upon which Tusk and Sikorski based their hopes for Trzaskowski’s success following Harris’s failure.
Their strategy relied on three pillars:
- Close cooperation with von der Leyen, aimed at creating the impression that Brussels was „entirely controlled” by Tusk.
- Collaboration with Macron and gaining France’s favor, as a supposed recognition of Poland’s position in Europe.
- The potential rise of Friedrich Merz and the CDU to the chancellorship in Germany, serving as an additional boost for Tusk.
Together with other minor actors, this backdrop was meant to convince Poles that Tusk’s puppet was a respected international figure who could secure Poland’s dignity and prominence. However, we now see this plan falling apart, with no light at the end of the tunnel for them.
1. The First Shock: Trump’s Victory
The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States was a major shock for the European mainstream, including Tusk. Initially, there was hope that Trump could somehow be tamed. Tusk himself embodied this naive wishful thinking, as evidenced by his posturing in November and December. However, like other “liberal” leaders, it quickly became clear that such flexing of muscles was laughable. Trump, contrary to their naïve expectations, was determined to implement his agenda.
For Tusk, the proving ground became the scandal surrounding the Israeli Prime Minister’s visit to Auschwitz. Sikorski orchestrated a stunt designed to showcase „Polish strength.” First, Szejna and Bartoszewski were sent to threaten the arrest of the Israeli Prime Minister (based on an ICC warrant) if he came to Poland. Then, Sikorski pretended to „arrange” for the visit to proceed without issues. This wasn’t naivety—it was a scheme that could only come from a mind severely impaired by intoxicants.
Ultimately, Tusk’s team was utterly humiliated. Their „arranging” resulted in tail-between-the-legs compliance with „suggestions” from Washington—specifically, Biden’s State Department, with whom Sikorski had claimed to have a „great rapport.”
2. Europe’s Crises at Trump’s Arrival
The international situation at the start of Trump’s presidency was fraught with crises:
- A governmental crisis and the erosion of the presidency in France.
- A deep political crisis in Germany and the UK.
- Growing tensions in Spain.
- A prolonged government crisis in Belgium and Austria.
- Upcoming elections in the Czech Republic and escalating tensions in Slovakia.
- Persistent tensions in Japan and a significant crisis in Canada.
Voices are even suggesting the career of von der Leyen may soon come to an end. At the G-8 level, the only stability can be expected in the USA and Italy.
These circumstances mean that the determination of the new US President will play a decisive role in the coming years. This determination will be embodied in Europe by two figures: Giorgia Meloni and Viktor Orban. Hopes that Friedrich Merz will emerge as a playmaker are misguided. If he becomes Chancellor, he will likely lead a shaky coalition with the SPD and Greens or even with AfD. Either way, European leadership seems unlikely, given Germany’s internal challenges, especially economic ones, which will take significant time to address.
3. The Strength of Orban and Meloni
With American backing, Orban and Meloni will increasingly gain the ear of new European governments. A real alternative to the weakened Paris-Berlin axis (and its dwindling allies) is emerging. The early signs of this process are already visible, and they will only grow stronger.
Economic and social crises in Germany and France, exacerbated by absurd „green” policies pushed by Brussels, will act as a catalyst. A significant shift in the fossil fuel market is expected in the first half of the year, putting immense pressure to lower energy prices. Europe will no longer tolerate artificially inflated traditional energy prices just to make wind and battery power appear more „affordable.” The likely US withdrawal from the Paris Accords will deal a heavy blow to Europe, forcing a choice: change course or face economic collapse.
4. Trump’s Long Memory
Donald Trump does not forget the pettiness and betrayals of other politicians. The downfall of Canada’s disgraced Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, serves as a symbolic example. Trudeau, who spent considerable effort attacking Trump, will go down in history for his spectacular „removal.”
Tusk and Sikorski have similarly done more than enough over the years to earn prominent positions on Trump’s list. There’s no need to revisit their countless attacks on Trump, which only further discredited them as politicians. Their current posturing, hiding behind „European solidarity,” may impress their dazed followers in KOD or Michnik’s newspaper, but it will achieve nothing. Their abysmal standing was already evident in the Israeli Prime Minister scandal—and it will only get worse. With solid backing from the US, Viktor Orban will also have ample opportunities to settle scores with these heroes.
(Continued in the next installment…)
